After the Moscow conference on Afghanistan, recently held in Moscow under the aegis of SCO, a conference took place in the Hague with similar subject profile under the aegis of UN. No wonder: the world is in real earnest anxious about the Afghan problems and probably intends to solve them seriously and in common. It is appropriate to mention here that Afghanistan is situated not somewhere in the background of the SCO responsibility area, but in its very heart.
In the Hague World Center of Forums and Congresses up to two thousand people gathered – foreign ministers and other representatives of 72 countries, as well as about 20 international organizations - UN, EU, NATO, World Bank, IMF, non-governmental humanitarian organizations. Here also were represented the states participating in the operation of International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF) conducted under the auspices of NATO, other countries rendering all kinds of assistance to Afghanistan. It means once more how much the Afghan subject disturbs the world community.
The general thesis of the conference is worded as “comprehensive strategy in a regional context”. It must be noted that the international conference on Afghanistan is held in this format and vein for the first time. The focus is on the new US strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. The strategy named “all-round” or “comprehensive” was declared by the US President Barack Obama on March 27. On the same day a one-day international conference on Afghanistan was held in Moscow. It was surely not pure coincidence.
In Moscow the sun was already down, and in Washington the day just started. It may be suggested that the US President needed to know results of the Moscow conference on Afghanistan – if only conceptually – before he voices his new strategy. It was necessary to have time to amend the project of new American strategy as far as possible if needed, on the basis of the Moscow conference results. It is no secret that for the USA and NATO SCO in Afghanistan is a delicate surprise, requiring due care.
The most sensational element of the strategy declared by Obama, as almost all the observers admit, became the proposal to create under the aegis of UN a contact group for Afghanistan that would include along with the NATO countries, Russia, China and Iran. Nobody expected this. Because the USA does not merely state readiness to “share responsibility” for Afghanistan alongside with its western allies also with Russia, China and even with its old opponent - Iran. The USA, actually, stated its readiness to “share” Afghanistan with the regional states such as Russia, China and Iran.
All correct. But it is worth wondering what preceded this, and coming back to the Moscow conference.
A peculiarity of the Moscow international conference on Afghanistan is just that it was held under the aegis of SCO. And it meant that in spite of the declared “traditional” issues for discussion, i.e. the threats of terrorism, drug trafficking and transboundary crime coming from Afghanistan, the regional cooperation was accentuated. It is not difficult to understand transformation of priorities. As was underlined by everybody who spoke at the Moscow conference, the problems at hand can be solved only when closely cooperating with direct and regional Afghanistan’s neighbors that, except Turkmenistan, are either permanent members of SCO, or its observers.
Knowing jealous attitude of the USA and NATO toward this organization, there were some concerns, that it is the idea of regional cooperation against which undercover soft boycott will be declared. But surprisingly the contrary proved to be the case. Practically all the participants of the Moscow conference supported the regional cooperation as the only possible key approach in solving the Afghan problem.
And this position was initiated at that by nobody else but the western allies of the USA – Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Canada, arriving in Moscow in the group of “eight”. It was them that (unlike U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Patrick Moon) granted the regional cooperation the status of “the only possible key approach” in solving the Afghan problem.
It was so unexpectedly and originally that when at the final meeting a proposal was raised to agree with the fact that at the Moscow conference “reconsideration of the international community’s efforts strategy in Afghanistan” in favor of the regional cooperation occurred, everybody agreed all at once.
And what was there to be done for Barack Obama in this situation? Naturally, to declare creation of a new contact group for Afghanistan and Pakistan that will consolidate everybody who participates in maintenance of security in the region. According to Obama, this group should include not only traditional allies of Washington from among the NATO countries and the States of the Gulf, but also Central Asian countries, Russia, China, India and Iran. Simply speaking – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries (that the USA and NATO, to say the least, often try not to notice, though they should.)
“We understand the necessity of looking for collective solutions to the Afghan problems. It is of critical importance that Russia and the USA should consider these two conferences as mutually supporting each other, and not as competitive ones,” said the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. I
t is appropriate to mention here that Afghanistan is situated not somewhere in the background of the SCO responsibility area, but in its very heart. From the east, south and west it is surrounded by the SCO observer countries – Pakistan and Iran, from north – by the permanent members - China, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In the north there is also a “neutral” (not joined) Turkmenistan, but it actively participates in Afghanistan’s fortune too. And exclusively in close liaison with Central Asian republics at that – such are the traditions.
But the point is not only in geography. It is enough to remind that the active stage of SCO creation fell on winter 2001-2002, after the launch of the US operation “Invincible freedom” in Afghanistan. Among initial ideas of SCO there is an attempt of the countries of the region to form their own policy toward what is going on in Afghanistan.
Here is the key question of everything what has been going on in the Central Asia region already for several decades. Answering the question is not possible without knowing what Central Asia is, how its countries relate to each other and with other “outer” forces.
Certainly, the USA and NATO do not want Afghanistan to suddenly enter SCO, nor SCO will be particularly enthusiastic about Afghanistan’s membership in NATO. This truth is clear to everybody. But there is another, not less significant truth.
Perhaps today any voluntary block alliances are not possible for Kabul – whether with NATO, CSTO, SCO or other; by the way, it constantly reminds of it. But to organize with the help of Afghanistan cooperation between NATO and SCO on the Afghan problem – this scenario is quite real. The main thing is to find a format for this cooperation.
Practically NATO is in Afghanistan neither formally, nor officially. Here is only the related to UN international peacemaking contingent ISAF. In regard to NATO, it has voluntarily, at request of the same ISAF, undertaken duties of these forces coordinator. In this case why does not SCO undertake duties of Afghanistan neighbors’ actions coordinator, with whom Kabul has established good relations on the basis of bilateral communications? By this scenario NATO will have no formal reasons to suspect Moscow and Beijing in striving to involve Afghanistan in their regional organization. On the contrary, this is an example of cooperation.
At present these thoughts seem to be idealistic. Nevertheless now the USA seriously began to think over: why it needs Afghanistan and how to exercise control here? In any case, the”comprehensive strategy” for Afghanistan comes for the first time on the initiative of the USA “in a regional context”.