RIA Novosti political observer Dminty Kosyrev – specially for InfoSCO

One of the results of Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Tashkent has become both Russia’s and Uzbekistan’s Presidents’ proposal to convene within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization an international conference on the Afghan problem. Incidentally, nobody said the Americans are not invited to take part in it. Just the opposite. The Americans may need such a meeting most of all. The President Barack Obama has already declared that his administration is ready to cooperate with Moscow to normalize the situation in Afghanistan.

The results of the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev’s state visit to Uzbekistan should also remind that SCO was not only on paper but really created in winter of 2001-2002, when the American war in Afghanistan began. And now when US new administration speaks of this war priority being not successful yet for America, the following conclusion can be made: SCO’s as well as all the Central Asia’s policy is faced with changes. They may be very good.

Dmitry Medvedev’s and the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov’s talks in Tashkent focused just on this kind of questions. Even if it is referred to bilateral affairs, they are of regional significance as well. The talks have resulted in an important agreement on extension of cooperation in the gas-transport field, beginning of preparation of technical and economic feasibility study for a new gas transmission system construction with Russia in parallel to the existing Central Asia – the Centre gas-transport corridor. The President Karimov clearly said that his country sells gas only Russia, while Russia changed payment principles for market ones without discount. There are a lot of other fields for cooperation – aircraft construction, communication and others. And either of them is of importance beyond bilateral interests.

And yet the major issue was Afghanistan and US new policy in the region. The latter does not actually exist yet – just a willing to pursue it. For example, the American contingent in Afghanistan has to double in the course of the year up to 60 thousand people. But what for? Barack Obama has given no answer as yet.

We remember when in 2001 an American operation as requital of the act of New-York twin skyscrapers destruction was just beginning in Afghanistan, it was admitted that the point was not only in the deposition of the Taliban regime in Kabul. It was said that perhaps the most backward and poor country in the world required itself a programme of radical reforms. Figures from US$ 40 to 60 billion were mentioned just for “the beginning" and further support for over 20 years. It was also said that not Afghanistan but the nuclear country – Pakistan – represented a great challenge in the way of terrorism, at least, on the part of its territory.

What happened afterwards confirmed once more that to gain something useful in a cheap way and get off easy is hardly possible. Khamid Karzai’s weak regime and the narcotics economy that had formed outside Karzai’s real control (i.e., in the whole Afghanistan) – is a global problem. Furthermore Russia is geographically closer to this problem than the USA.

That is why the direct question whether US military operation activation in Afghanistan is beneficial for Russia and regional countries, can be answered directly and simply: yes. And this can (potentially so far) change the whole situation connected with Russia’s policy in this region.

Nowadays, this policy is oversimplified, if not to say, interpreted as a joke. One of the key issues of January was a subject related to US Air Force departure or no departure from the Manas base situated in the suburbs of Bishkek. Moscow supposedly was making ready to buy it from Kirghizia for $2 billion credit (i.e., persuade the Kirghiz to drive the Americans out.); and as far as Uzbekistan is concerned, there will be no US bases there; Russia, supposedly, has won here.

But if to take a good look at this story, it turns out now that Moscow did not try to get the Americans out of the Kirghizia officially, nor yet unofficially. And David Petreus, Commaner of US forces in the Middle East and Central Asia, after having a tour of all the Central Asian countries, not only confirmed that the base in Kirghizia remains, but also told something about old existing and new agreements with Russia on transit of goods “via the Northern route” to Afghanistan. Moscow has immediately reminded: nonmilitary goods transit exists only.

It is a key issue for the USA. In addition to that Pakistan becomes more and more dangerous zone for goods transit, Central Asia and Russia prove to be necessary for providing new intensified operations in Afghanistan. Judging by polemics around Petreus’ words, many things will soon be discussed here.

It should be noted that Russia's active policy in the Central Asia that began in the very beginning of the century has never supposed absolute exclusion of the Americans. It was conditioned by a certain partnership with them in the course of Russia’s "come back" to the region after pause of 90-s. It’s another matter that there was no need to create a situation for Russia exclusion. Therefore Moscow entered into alliance with Beijing in relation to form a flexible system of multilateral partnership in the Central Asia, profitable for all countries of the region. That is because the Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kazakhs and the Kirghiz themselves will never let a unilateral domination of the Russians, the Chinese or Americans. They need all of them. By the way, it is what the SCO philosophy consists of.

The USA then punished themselves, trying to do in the Central Asia what they did in Georgia and Ukraine – overthrow the existing power and implant there weak, incompetent, but pro-American regimes. It made angry all the Central Asian governments, Russia, China, Iran, i.e., most part of those countries, that are needed now to Washington to succeed in its Afghan venture. After a feeble attempt of regime change in the Central Asia it was really possible to take leave of American influence in the region, but for the fact that no foolishness is eternal. America will come back when conducts sensible policy.

Following the results of Medvedev’s visit to Tashkent, Uzbekistan’s and Russia’s Presidents offered to convene and international conference of the Afghan problem within the SCO. Incidentally, nobody said the Americans are not invited to take part in it. Just the opposite. The Americans may need such a meeting most of all.

Certainly, both in Russia and in the Central Asian countries’ capitals there are and will be a lot of people willing not so much to believe new administration’s words, as remember the previous one’s efforts. In particular, it is the question that Medvedev and Karimov discussed: what “red lines” to draw for the USA’s new policy in the region?

It is another matter that conversation is just beginning. It is not known yet, what China will say. But it is known that the USA can do nothing without new policy towards Iran. There is yet India, a key country in the region. Taken all round changes have just begun.