Alexander Zapolskis India enters the markets of Greater Eurasia / SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization

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18.02.2019 16:12 Alexander Zapolskis

The geopolitical center of the future world is confidently and inexorably moving to Southeast Asia, which is drastically changing all the usual global breakdowns.

The new outline of the mechanisms of the international economy affects the former strategic confrontations. For example, the long-standing big competition between India and China. with approximately equal initial conditions (in terms of population, area, supply of raw materials and energy, level of scientific, technical and economic development, share of rural population), the Chinese dragon started earlier and is more energetic than the Indian elephant due to a successful combination of a number of circumstances. Thanks to this, China has achieved notable results, setting an example to its neighbors and forcing them to become more active. Since the initial conditions in Hindustan are generally similar to those of China, India can make an economic breakthrough only relying on external resources. More precisely, on the development of foreign markets. And it has little time left, considering the pace with which Beijing makes the world “Chinese.” without such capabilities, New Delhi is implementing its own global plan for the development of international trade space, aiming at expanding trade with Central Asia and Russia, with a further prospect of access to Europe. At first glance, the scale here is inferior to the Chinese “Economic Belt of the Silk Road.” we are talking about expanding a single seaport in which India will invest $ 160 million. But the details change everything. Port Chabahar is located in Iran. A large industrial and transport cluster will be formed on its basis, playing the role of a large gate of the Southern Transport Corridor (UTK), stringing the Caucasus and Central Asia and opening them to cheap Indian goods. In the near future, these gates

will work in both directions. From March 2016, based on an intergovernmental agreement between the countries, India began to build a plant in Chabahar for the liquefaction and cracking of natural gas. The interest here is mutual. New Delhi gets a stable source of supplies of energy it needs with a big discount from world market prices. In turn, with the help of India, Tehran is turning into a major LNG exporter, the scale of which will allow us to withstand American economic sanctions. Indian investments in the LNG project will amount to $ 85 million in tranches of $ 20-22 million per year.

In addition, India is investing another $ 1.6 billion in the Chabohar-Zakhedan railway line with a length of more than 500 km, which allows expanding cargo traffic from the ocean coast to Afghanistan, which will have a beneficial effect on the volume of mutual Afghan-Indian trade and the further implementation of the SPC project as a whole. In particular, India intends to raise trade with Russia from the current $ 1 billion to the desired $ 30 billion per year.

The geopolitical significance and economic growth of Iran as a whole is sharply increasing. Cooperation with India allows us to receive both external resources for our own development, and transit revenues, and the access of our own goods to all those markets that STC will reach. Thus, another geopolitical axis of the future world is formed: India-Iran-Russia, capable of balancing Chinese influence, as well as taking the Russian Federation to the position of a key link in providing communication between New Delhi and Beijing.

As a result, Russia is at the crossroads of two key logistics flows, which will be a pleasant bonus for it. Only the United States and Britain, which are losing their geopolitical and economic importance, are losing in what is happening. They are trying to seize the moment and form a new global union “against China” with India, trying to block Iran in every possible way and at the same time block the oxygen of the growing Indian economy. However, not very successful: the European Union ignored anti-Iran sanctions. India also refused to comply with them.

This clearly demonstrates the success of the concept of Iranian-Indian economic convergence. The scale, of course, is not “Chinese”, but the plan is clear and concrete. It involves the completion of key phases within 4-5 years. It is not excluded that the progress in the implementation of the Indian STC will boost the pace of the implementation of the project “One Belt - One way”. In any case, in the next five years, especially considering the construction of a bridge to Sakhalin and further to Japan, the world is expected to change.


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