What methods does the US use to sideline Russia and China in the region? Alexander Knyazev, coordinator of regional programs, the Center for Studies of Central Asia, the Caucasus, Urals and Volga region, the Institute of Oriental Studies, the Russian Academy of Sciences, discusses this in his interview.

Q.: What is the reason for the United States’ excessive activity in Kyrgyzstan? How does it correlate with the popular opinion that chaos is where America is? How does this small country deserve this “honor”? What will be the outcome?

A.: Actually, Kyrgyzstan is not an end in itself. The US analytical and political circles have worked on the project of “Greater Middle East” for many years already; within it, there is the so-called project of Greater Central Asia.

All these projects and scenarios envisage redrawing huge regions on the world map. These scenarios assign the Kyrgyz part of the Fergana Valley the fate of Kosovo: it will be an enclave where crime, drugs and terrorist structures will concentrate. These strings will allow influencing the countries of the region, if necessary. In Europe, this function is performed by Kosovo – here you have the European drug dealing center under the roof of the US airbase Bondsteel, as well as trafficking in humans and human organs, smuggling of weapons – the entire range of the criminal market… By the way, the same fate is prepared for Libya, notably, for its eastern part where the so-called revolutionaries supported by the West are based.

Q.: Not so long ago, you said at an international conference that virtually any conflict in Kyrgyzstan threatens to become international…

A.: It is good that last year’s southern developments were localized, thanks to a large degree to Karimov’s generally correct policy. I believe that Tashkent understands clearly that any escalation of the conflict in the Fergana Valley is first of all aimed against Uzbekistan.

It should be remembered that historically, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan consists of President Islam Karimov’s former opposition. This tool is aimed against him, against Uzbekistan’s political regime, directly or indirectly. Naturally, Karimov is working to reduce the IMU’s activity in the region.

This, of course, doesn’t stop their transnational activities. Many of the IMU leaders have “practiced” in Chechnya. Last spring, they received powerful reinforcements from the Caucasus and Xinjiang – Chechens, Dagestanis, Uigurs… A universal tool.

Q.: Which is located not far away and is sure to take advantage of a shaky situation here or in our neighboring countries. Take Tajikistan as an example…

A.: Tajikistan in this respect is important and convenient, partially, as a transit territory. This territory has been marred by conflicts since the civil war of the 1990s, which was once again confirmed by last year’s developments in the Rasht Valley. The distance between the Afghan district of Darwaz on the Tajik border and the closest Kyrgyz settlement is about 1,500 km by road. This way has been repeatedly covered by terrorists and drug couriers. Dushanbe has never controlled this territory – Tavildara, Garm, Dzhirgital, the so-called ‘Karategin zone.” In the past, the Soviet Union managed to establish itself there only in the 1950s.

Apart from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Russia and Kazakhstan will not be able to stand back – de jure and de facto – as member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. In case of a conflict, both Russia and Kazakhstan will have to intervene in some or other way, be it political pressure or something different, up to the bringing of troops.

Q.: Can the latest developments in Libya have affected Central Asia in any way?

A.: Both Astana and Tajikistan must have learned from the Libyan events. Nazarbayev secured his position with an early election, which showed that there was no serious opposition. Uzbekistan must have reinforced the corresponding government structures. However, the attempts at playing multi-vector, hoping for America’s loyalty, are no longer feasible, especially for countries that don’t have resources; the time of such games is over. Playing friends with America is fraught with consequences: the example of Hosni Mubarak is very telling, and he used to be such a great friend of the United States.

What is important for the US now is rotation in itself. This means that loyal regimes that have been around for twenty years or more have to be replaced. Is there a guarantee that the same will not be done to Nazarbayev, for example?

Q.: But an attempt to overthrow him could bring about chaos.

A.: The US goal in Central Asia is to establish a manageable chaos. There will be a smoldering conflict in Kyrgyzstan, sometimes hidden, sometimes open… It is not difficult to manage it, by providing – or not providing – money and weapons. There are a lot of ways to regulate the activities of all these instigators, terrorists and so on.

Q.: What is the goal of managing chaos?

A.: A lot in today’s politics is determined by energy resources. A conflict is a way to manage energy flows. If there is a conflict in a region, the possibility of energy production (and especially, imports) falls drastically: who will invest in a pipeline going through a country at war?

Q.: Many countries intend to build pipelines in Central Asia. Almost all global players have their pipeline projects here.

A.: Now there is a trend towards hydrocarbon supply from Central Asia to China. One of the goals of the manageable chaos scenario is to preserve the region’s oil and gas reserves and not to allow their supply to rivals, i.e. to the Chinese market.

Yet another goal is to put indirect pressure on rival countries. Should there be a conflict, Russia and Kazakhstan will have to spend big, even colossal sums on their security, even if they do not get involved in the conflict directly. For example, China boosted the spending on infrastructure related to the safety of its borders with Kyrgyzstan several-fold after March 2005. Security is a very expensive pleasure, and if you recall that the Russian-Kazakh border is one of the longest in the world… Even Gazprom couldn't afford to equip it properly…